| Business Cycles in the Contemporary World: Description, Causes, Aggregation, and Synchronization 2003 Edition Contributor(s): Süssmuth, Bernd (Author) |
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ISBN: 3790815322 ISBN-13: 9783790815320 Publisher: Physica-Verlag OUR PRICE: $52.24 Product Type: Paperback Published: November 2002 Annotation: The book provides a thorough and sophisticated descriptive analysis of business cycles in a historical perspective. The study is based on the latest available time series as well as latest techniques from the frequency domain. A combined univariate and bivariate analysis is conducted on the national as well as supranational (G7- and Euro-Area wide) level. Issues of stability, volatility, and cyclicality are investigated jointly. An extensive analysis of US manufacturing investment series on the fairly disaggregated four-digit level highlights the limits of linear models to capture the sectoral aggregation process. Synchronization is modelled by a mode-locking mechanism of industrial investment cycles induced by informational externalities. The model in its stochastic version is numerically simulated to assess an agreement between model and data. |
| Additional Information |
| BISAC Categories: - Business & Economics | Economics - Microeconomics - Business & Economics | Econometrics - Business & Economics | Economics - Macroeconomics |
| Dewey: 338.542 |
| LCCN: 2002042530 |
| Series: Contributions to Economics |
| Physical Information: 0.43" H x 6.34" W x 9.46" (0.60 lbs) 165 pages |
| Descriptions, Reviews, Etc. |
| Publisher Description: The realizationoftheresearch project documented in thisstudy wouldnot have been possible without the kind support and help of several people. I want totaketheopportunitytoexpressmygratitudetothem. Myfirstand foremost thanks go to my thesis supervisor Claude Hillinger. He steadily supported my work with a host of ideas, criticism and encouragement. He has been influential and inspiring in his comments and criticism on alllev- elsofdevelopment ofthisdissertation. My sincerethanksare dueto Ulrich Woitek, teachingmefromtheverybeginninginprogrammingandlettingme participate from his expert knowledgeintimeseriesanalysis. UlrichWoitek and Michael Reiter kindly provided me with software and encouraged me throughoutthe whole dissertation project with their comments and in dis- cussionsduringtheir staysat Munichand via e-mail. Theyhavehelped me totake many hurdles, particularly in the early stages ofthe project. I am indebted tomyco-supervisor Stephan Klasen forhisengagement andopen- minded interest in mythesis. To makethe present work more readable, my friendsin the US, JeanCzerlinskyandRadovanVadovic, madegreat efforts to correct language and style. lowe a great debt of gratitude to them. I alsothankReginaRiphahnandBurkhardHeer fortheir encouragement and helpful guidance. Special thanksgo to Barbara Dluhosch, JakobdeHaan, Burkhard Heer andGerhardIlling. Astheirteachingassistanttheyallgavemetheresources andnecessaryscopeofdevelopmentformydissertationprojectinastimulat- ingenvironmentattheEconomics DepartmentoftheUniversity ofMunich. Ithank BeatriceDumpertand BrigitteGebhardfor their maternal motiva- tional support and help in administrative matters. Finally, I am indebted to MaximilianFreier for hisreliablesupportand forcross-readingnumerous preliminarydraftsofthethesis. I gratefully acknowledge the Bavarian Young Scientists Grant (Pro- motionsstipendium nach dem Gesetz zur Forderung des bayerischen wis- senschaftlichen Nachwuchses) for financial support during the first years of my dissertation project. Munich, August 2002 BerndSilssmutli Contents 1. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1. 1 BusinessCycle Research:21st CenturyPerspective 1 1. 1. 1 TheClassicView. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1. 1. 2 From CBC toRBC School. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |